MARKET OUTLOOK – 2019 should be a good year for investors. In fact, we think that we may already have seen the bottom of the recent market downturn, which briefly fell below the 20% bear market definition on the S&P 500 and was not far behind in Canada. Markets have been rallying in early January based on hopes that the U.S. and China can reach an agreement to end the trade war they are in. Talks may get derailed in the near-term causing markets to fall again, but even in this case, we would expect the market to bottom in the first quarter and recover quickly from there. We would not be surprised to see markets up 20% from Dec. 31st levels by the end of 2019.
Click here to read more: Cardinal Quarterly – January 2019
BUILDING ON STRENGTH IN DM FOREIGN EQUITY – The DM Foreign Equity Portfolio essentially tracked the S&P 500 as it climbed during the first six months of 2018. When things headed south at the beginning of the fourth quarter, however, and many of the market’s most richly valued names took the brunt of the repricing, our focus on quality and fundamentals began to shine through. DM Foreign Equity opened up a significant gap against the broad market during the steep selloff and, by the time the punishing month of December was complete, it had surpassed the S&P by more than 6% for the calendar year.
Click here to read more: DM-Monthly-Report-Jan-19
On market swings and the behavior of crowds – While taking in a recent NHL hockey game, we got to thinking about the peculiarities of human nature and how group dynamics might be making an outsized contribution to the recent plunge in stock prices.
Around the same time that we were watching the relatively well-heeled jostle for attention in ta t-shirt toss, a run-of-the-mill equity market correction was rapidly taking on a more bearish tone. In the space of just a few weeks, the collective perception of stock valuations and underlying business conditions was upended and measures of investor sentiment shot from mildly positive to deeply pessimistic.
Click here to read more: DM-Portfolio-Commentary-Q4-18