Cardinal Update – September 2019
Don’t Fear a Recession When You Have a Quality Portfolio: The “R Word” has been cropping up as of late, especially since the U.S. 2 year and 10 year yield curve inverted briefly. When you add this signal to the trade disputes, slowing global growth and various geopolitical events, it certainly raises the risk of a recession in the next year or two.
It’s not yet a done deal as employment remains strong, inflation is low and economic growth, while slowing, is still positive. There are also some unusual forces including the search for positive interest rates, central bank quantitative easing, flight to quality and aging demographics that are pushing longer-term interest rates down. But ignoring the warning signs can be perilous.
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