Provisus Monthly Insight – July 2017
COMMODITIES BOTTOM OUT – Typically, commodity prices go through longer bear market cycles compared to bull market cycles while the opposite is usually true for stock prices. While Canadian equity markets are slightly off the record highs set in February 2017, commodities, relatively speaking, are dirt cheap. In fact, they are basically the cheapest they have been since the all-time high was reached in June 2008. Commodity prices have fallen 56.9%, based upon the decline in the S&P GSCI Commodity Index over the past 9 years.
Click here to read more: Monthly Insight – July 2017 – Commodities Bottom Out
DM Summer Newsletter 2017
FOCUS ON INTRINSIC GROWTH, LET PRICE FOLLOW – In presentations to clients and prospective clients, we spend significant time discussing company cash flow and why this metric is so important within our investment process. From our perspective, firms that are generating (and especially growing) excess cash have a relatively quantifiable intrinsic value and don’t require us to rely as much on possible future corporate developments for investment return, events which regularly fall short of market expectations.
Click here to read more: DM-Monthly-Report-Summer-17
Provisus Monthly Insight – June 2017
DON’T SELL IN MAY; SETTLE IN – Stock investors often hear about “sell in May and go away” around this time of year. It implies that investors should sell their stocks in early May and buy them back in late October at a lower price. Since 1968 the S&P/TSX Index has risen an average of 8.0% (including dividends) from November to April but added only 1.5% from May to October. Interestingly enough, the “sell in May and go away” phenomenon appears to be universal across international stock markets.
Click here to read more: Don’t Sell in May; Settle In
DM Monthly Newsletter – May 2017
Most Important Economy Grinds Ahead, Stocks Follow – While recently perusing the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) website, we were struck by a chart showing real (or ex-inflation) US GDP growth over the past decade. As expected, output plunged in 2008/09 as the financial crisis unfolded and businesses and individuals collectively retrenched. Since economic activity bottomed in mid-2009, however, the recovery has been remarkably consistent, with American growth tracking along an almost perfectly straight upward tilting path.
Click here to read more: DM-Monthly-Report-May-17
