DM Monthly Report – May 2023
PRICE TAKERS & PRICE SETTERS – If energy investors blanched when the price of crude dropped by nearly 15% or $70 a barrel in recent weeks, they shouldn’t have been surprised by the move: oil has been at that same level on no fewer than nine separate occasions over the past decade and a half. The capriciousness and unpredictability of commodity prices is one of the reasons we generally shy away from resource companies, as a successful investment in this area requires a correct call on both the company and the output that it sells.
Feature Stock: Alphabet (GOOGL) – The past two calendar years were almost mirrored for shares of GOOGL, with the stock gaining more than 67% in 2021 and then falling by nearly 40% in 2022.
Click here to read more: DM Monthly Report – May 2023
DM Monthly Report – April 2023
AND THE CASH ROLLS ON… As we’ve highlighted in the past, the most important fundamental input to our equity evaluation model is cash flow, and in particular, its steady production, its growth, and how it’s redeployed by management. When presented with investment options, companies may use their generated capital to boost organic growth or to fund acquisition activity. However, recognizing when investment opportunities may not produce returns above the cost of capital is equally important.
FEATURE STOCK: JP MORGAN (JPM) – The biggest US bank by assets reported significant earnings beat for Q1, exceeding analyst expectations by more than 25% on an adjusted per share basis.
Click here to read more: DM Monthly Report – April 2023
Cardinal Quarterly – April 2023
March 2023 Market Outlook – Despite some surprising bank failures in the U.S. and Europe and another interest rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve, most developed market indices moved higher in the first quarter. Inflation, the most important factor, has continued to fall and employment has remained strong. The Chinese economy also looks set to post strong GDP growth now that it has reopened from COVID-19 lockdowns. We continue to remain positive on stock market returns in 2023.
Cardinal Rule #11: STAY BALANCED – It’s easy to look at the long history of stocks that have gone to the moon and
kick yourself for not going all-in when you had the chance.
Click here to read more: Cardinal Quarterly – April 2023
DM Portfolio Commentary – March 2023
March Madness – Though October has long been regarded as the most treacherous month for stock investors, it may be time for March to claim that dubious title. So far in this young millennium, the vernal equinox has coincided with the popping of the dot-com bubble, the final market plunge of the Great Financial Crisis, the covid crash, and now a burst of bank failures. As it stands, we might all be better off if the investing calendar comprised only 11 months!
Focus has also recently shifted from inflation and interest rates to the financial system, with notable events like the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse’s merger with UBS. In this note, we aim to answer some of the questions that might have come to mind as you think about your portfolio and family wealth in light of recent news.
Click here to read more: DM Portfolio Commentary – March 2023
