Cardinal Capital Investment Update – May 2022
IS A RECESSION ON THE HORIZON? – David Rosenberg says if there’s one thing we’ve learned from history it’s that people don’t learn from history. One of Wall Street’s most notorious bears believes Canada is on the verge of a recession as central banks have their hands full with rising inflation.
“The trick (for central banks) is going to be to quash this inflation without creating an outright recession. That is, by far, the biggest risk right now,” says David Rosenberg, president and chief strategist at Rosenberg Research & Associates, a Toronto-based economic consulting company.
There have been 14 hiking cycles by the Federal Reserve in the U.S. and 11 of them ended in a recession, he told more than 450 people at the CFA Society Winnipeg’s annual forecast dinner at the RBC Convention Centre on April 19th. Recessions typically follow the kind of fuel and food squeeze that the world is currently experiencing, he says.
Click here to read more: Cardinal Investment Update – May 2022
Cardinal Quarterly – 2022
Market Outlook – Geopolitical and economic developments were mostly negative in the first quarter of 2022. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has no clear end in sight and China’s COVID lockdowns in major cities such as Shanghai have slowed the world’s second-biggest economy, lowering global GDP. Inflation has continued to surge, creating expectations for further interest rate increases from central banks.
As a result of these concerns, most developed market indices fell in the first quarter. Only the S&P/TSX in Canada and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. were positive, increasing 3.8% and 1.2%, respectively. The next best-performing markets were the Japanese Nikkei 225 and the Australian ASX 200, which were down -2.5% and -2.7%.
Click here to read more: Cardinal Quarterly – March 2022
DM Portfolio Commentary – Q1 2022
Things didn’t get any better; they just stopped getting worse – Though individuals often invest most confidently when they’re feeling good about the world around them, it regularly happens that stocks rally while socio-economic and other conditions are far from ideal. We saw this on an exceptional scale when markets soared long before either the Great Financial or Covid Crises were solved and, during the past quarter, we experienced it in a more concentrated way.
Equity markets began the year under a cloud, as investors grappled with both inflation rates that hadn’t been seen in decades and the expected end to ultra-loose monetary policy, concerns which were soon compounded when Russian tanks and troops crossed the Ukrainian border.
Click here to read more: DM Portfolio Commentary – Q1 2022
Cardinal Update – Feb 2022
Sunny Days for Suncor – After a dismal 2020, Suncor Energy is on the move. The Calgary- based company was hit hard early in the pandemic – even being dethroned by Canadian Natural Resources as Canada’s most valuable energy company – but it has rebounded significantly since
then along with rising oil prices. Suncor shares returned 54 per cent, including dividends, in 2021 and it increased its dividend by 100 per cent, returning it to pre-Covid levels.
Company Focus: NOVARTIS
Novartis is one of the world’s largest pharmaceutical companies and its product portfolio is diversified across growing treatment areas such as oncology, cardiovascular, immunology and neuroscience.
Click here to read more: Cardinal Update – February 2022
